老框架,新部件:用 Jev 让概率模型自己建、自己更新
用大量是否命题建一个领域模型,用 Jev 估计概率,把现实中发生的事件作为证据输入,实时更新对未来的预测。这类模型已有四十多年的成熟框架,没有普及是因为建模和维护太贵。Jev 能把其中两个最贵的环节自动化:估计概率,以及把文字消息转成证据。
Old frameworks, a new part: letting probability models build and update themselves with Jev
Build a domain model from many yes/no propositions, have Jev estimate the probabilities, feed real-world events in as evidence, and update forecasts in real time. Mature frameworks for this have existed for more than forty years; they never spread because building and maintaining models was too expensive. Jev can automate the two most expensive steps, estimating probabilities and turning written messages into evidence.